Trade relations of the Countries of Central and Eastern Europe under geopolitical shocks 2022-2024 and Russia’s position

Golubkin A.V, Knyazev Yu.K.

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to assess the economic consequences for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) resulting from the termination of trade cooperation with Russia. To achieve this objective, the following tasks were addressed: analysis of the dynamics of key trade indicators between CEE countries and Russia, along with the structure of trade under the pressure of Western sanctions; examination of the impact of the CEE region’s pro-American orientation on its economic development; and identification of shifts in trade relations between CEE countries and other EU member states, as well as with regions outside Europe, in the context of the growing geographical diversification of their foreign trade. The authors employed research methods such as statistical comparison, semantic analysis, and graphical modeling. The findings indicate that numerous sanctions led to a sharp decline in CEE countries’ imports from Russia, accompanied by a less pronounced reduction in their exports. The breakdown of trade relations with Russia contributed, to some extent, to the deepening crisis within the European Union, affecting the eurozone economy in recent years and escalating into a partial industrial recession. The significant reduction in purchases of cheap gas and oil from Russia negatively impacted the economic development of many European countries. Moreover, the adverse trends in CEE countries’ trade within the EU, which intensified during this crisis period, accelerated the diversification of their trade relations with other global regions. Asian countries, particularly China, have emerged as promising areas for this diversification. Regarding Russia, its previous role as an active participant in CEE trade diversification has significantly diminished, largely due to the actions of its former cooperation partners.

Keywords

Central and Eastern Europe; geopolitical crisis; foreign trade; directions of trade diversification; Russia’s strategic significance.

DOI: 10.31249/rsm/2025.01.03

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