This article examines the key trends, challenges, and prospects for trade and investment cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus as they pursue import substitution policies against the backdrop of widespread Western sanctions. It is noted that overcoming the previously high import dependence on European high-tech goods has become a key challenge for the economies of both countries. An analysis is provided of intergovernmental agreements and programs adopted within the Union State aimed at reducing import dependence on goods from unfriendly countries. The main areas of import substitution for Western equipment and components are analyzed, including parallel imports, reorientation to new suppliers, and domestic production of import-substituting goods. It is established that a significant increase in trade and investment cooperation between the two countries in 2022–2024 was the result of increased coordination of their national economic policies and the implementation of common import substitution programs. In further implementing their common import substitution policy, the countries should gradually transition to an export-oriented approach. The article assesses the export potential of the two countries based on indices of revealed comparative advantages. It also examines the key features of the product and geographic diversification of export flows between Russia and the Republic of Belarus, taking into account the current formats and mechanisms for their trade interactions with third countries.
Russian Federation; Republic of Belarus; Union State; sanctions; industrial policy; cooperation; import substitution; foreign trade; foreign investment, diversification.