To Understand the Changes in Modern Globalization: Economic Outlook

Vercueil J.


During its process of extension throughout the world, modern capitalism has been transformed and financialised, provoking diverse normative stances among scholars about what is commonly called «globalisation». The article aims at challenging two classical views about modern globalisation: the first one has been called «happy globalisation » in France. Referencing itself to liberal authors who have been prolific on the subject, it argues that world economic integration is ultimately leading to prosperity for all, provided free competition is guaranteed. The other, opposite view is structured around the prophecy of «de-globalisation», predicting that globalisation is bound to be reversed by popular discontent fuelled by inequalities. The article analyzes the works that illustrate these two normative approaches to globalization, and formulates the author's views on this process. Since globalization is a contradictory and often conflictual process, we contend that it is too early to say that globalisation has come to an end. The article suggests scenarios that describe alternative ways of globalization development. The worst possible scenario is the «Explosion» scenario. It implies a departure from the policy of coordinated decisions in the global economy and can lead to economic, political and social aggravation on a global scale. The second scenario – «Regulation» involves the reform of existing institutions (IMF, WTO) and the formation of new sustainable mechanisms for international cooperation. The third scenario – «Regionalization» provides for the restructuring of economic activity around large regional poles. In this case, international cooperation will develop at the regional level.


globalisation; discontent; «happy globalisation»; «de-globalisation»; scenario method; regulation; regionalization.

DOI: 10.31249/rsm/2020.02.05

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