Institutional specificities and challenges of managing ethno‑political risks in contemporary Russia

Погорельский Д.М.

Abstract

The article presents the results of a study of the Russian Federation’s nationalities policy as a political risk management tool. The author’s purpose is to identify the features of the contemporary Russian approach to ethnopolitical risk management. A riskoriented approach is employed, the use of which is driven by the need to reduce uncertainty and increase the effectiveness of public policy in the context of global turbulence. At the theoretical level, the author defines ethnopolitical risk as a type of political risk associated with the multi-ethnic composition of the population and the potential politicization of ethnicity. The author also notes the presence of risk factors directly related to Russia’s nationalities policy as a component of public policy. Based on an analysis of regulatory legal acts and other sources, the article examines the main dysfunctions and shortcomings of the current model of managing ethnic diversity, generated by the corporatist nature of interaction between state and society. The author argues for the relevance of postbureaucratic logic applied to ethnopolitical risk management, which should be carried out at all stages of the implementation of nationalities policy and related policies. The results also indicate the government’s interest in ethnopolitical risk management as a tool for increasing the effectiveness of current policy and raising the level of national security. Among the practical priorities identified, the necessity of ethnopolitical risk management as an integral component of nationalities policy is highlighted.

Keywords

challenges and threats; risk management; ethnopolitical risk; risk factors; state national policy; interethnic relations; national security.

DOI: 10.31249/rsm/2026.01.15

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